Oscar night will soon be upon us,in all it's glory and hype,and for many folks,this is the Pop Culture Superbowl of Cinema. There are plenty of betting pools out there for this occasion but this year is a rather tricky one to gauge the odds. Here to give any gamblers some tips(plus a chance to shoot my mouth off),are the Lady T Official Oscar predictions for 2007. Fasten your seatbelts because hopefully it'll be a bumpy night.
SURE BETS:
The only safe money you could place on any Oscar nominees this year would be for Forest Whitaker as Best Actor,Helen Mirren as Best Actress and Jennifer Hudson for Best Supporting Actress. Whitaker is going to get the gold mainly because this is his year;much like Julia Roberts winning one for Erin Brockovich or Denzel Washington for Training Day,the stars have aligned in all the right places and it's a done deal. I didn't see The Last King of Scotland but Whitaker's paid plenty of dues and it's nice to see a solid character actor get some props:
Mirren's been practically annointed by most of the major awards show. That woman's got a monopoly on playing royals,I swear! She does deserve the respect,however. Jennifer Hudson is scheduled to perform at the Oscars(along with Beyonce and Anika Noni Rose)and it'll be great to hear her sing as well as get her award:
Other noms with a strong shot at winning are Pan's Labyrinth for Best Foreign Film(I've found in that catagory that the one film you've heard most about usually wins.)and Best Makeup,An Inconvenient Truth for Best Documentary(If Gore had campaigned as hard for the presidency as he has for this flick,we might not have needed a recount) and Cars for Best Animated Feature.
TOO CLOSE TO TELL:
I would've put Eddie Murphy in the Sure Bet column but it's hard to tell at this point what his chances are. He won the Golden Globe,which is a good sign in his favor,but with a sure fire piece of crap like Norbit coming out just before the ceremony almost gurantees to sink him. However,Norbit made a huge opening box office($33 million) that's astounding for this time of year. So, will he or won't he?
He's up against Alan Arkin,Jackie Earle Haley,Djimon Hounou and Marky Mark. Arkin could get a Little Miss Sunshine buzz but a win is iffy. Blood Diamond and Little Children really aren't getting much love so those fellas have slim chances and Wahlberg was decent in The Departed but it's not a real strong showcase for him. So,Eddie has the best shot and if I had to pick someone,he'd be it. But,you can truly say that it's anyone game here.
Best Song is a real puzzler;Dreamgirls dominates the catagory but all of the tunes up for it are not the signature pieces the show's known for. My best guess is that Patience has the best chance of winning from the three. It's a pretty positive number and a group sing-a-long,which keeps folks from picking between Beyonce and Jennifer Hudson. Give a listen:
Of course,they may go for the safest choice which is Our Town from Cars. Really wish that this catagory had more gutsy choices,like this infamous South Park ditty:
THE BIG MAGILLA:
That would be Best Picture. Tough call but my instincts are saying that it's Little Miss Sunshine. Let's look at the other films up against it. The Departed is a great thriller and there's no question in my mind that Martin Scorsese will get Best Director for it. It used to be that Best Director and Best Picture wins went hand in hand but that's been shot to hell more than once. The Departed is a worthy nominee but it doesn't resonate as a winner.
The Queen has gotten much love from critics and good word of mouth from audiences but this is a British film about the British way of life and it's mixed feelings towards the monarchy. I don't think that many folks will truly connect with this film due to that and feel that Mirren getting an award will more than satisfy any recognization due to it.
Clint Eastwood is a smart and sophiscated filmmaker but Letters From Iwo Jima has a very History Channel vibe to it. I would rather see that than his earlier release this year,Flags of Our Fathers,but not by much. Babel does have some Hollywood love for it but it's pretty much this year's Crash and after the reception Crash got after swiping the award away from Brokeback Mountain(which it did,in my opinion),voters may not be inclined to go that route again.
Which leaves Little Miss Sunshine standing tall and in the lead. It has the best of both worlds,a heartfelt family film with strong indy sensibilities and no sap factor whatsoever. Also,this key scene in the film has the feel of a classic(if you didn't see LMS,don't watch this clip because it will ruin the show for you. You have been warned):
Okay,that's my two cents on this topic. Come Monday morning,I hope to be both right and wrong about the winners and losers on Oscar night. If you have any picks or predictions,please feel free to share!
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